Contrasting
China and Japan
Japan has
the longest life expectancy rate in
the world with a population of about 126.475 million people while that of
China is estimated to be 1.3367 billion people.
Japan has an average growth rate of -0.1% while China has 0.5% .China’s
population is drastically declining due to such practices as one-child policy
and female infanticide. Parents prefer not more than one child in order to save
money and to give them ample time to pursue their careers. They generally
believe that raising more than one child is expensive.Japan suffers from the
same experience. In both countries, the young generation is reducing while the
aging population is increasing.Japan does not allow significant immigrants.
China has more people migrating to other countries than those coming in.
One
of the theories that explain the trend in the population growth is the
demographic transition which was propounded by Warren Thompson (1887-1973).He
explains the transition that takes place in industrialized societies from high
birth rates and death rates to low birth rates and death rates. It is based on
fertility rates (which is ever decreasing).
The
second theory is the ‘core’ and ‘periphery’. It explains that the improving
economy of the world is enjoyed by the wealthy states (core) regardless of
their population size. The poorer states (periphery) do not enjoy the improving
economy of the world but instead increase their population to cater for the
increasing demand for labour.
There
have been measures in China aimed at reducing the high growth rate. Some of
these measures include implementation of one-child policy which began in
1979.However; this is just a temporary measure to help slow down the population
growth and therefore is likely to be substituted by other measures. Any couple
breaking this law is fined. The aim of China is to reduce the population within
the next three hundred years to a population of 300 to 500 million people. On
the contrary, Japan doesn’t lay much emphasis on reducing the population. It
has an enormous aging population; therefore the government encourages Japanese
families to have children. It has started support a child allowance given to
the fathers or mothers who live in Japan and take care of children aged 15
years or younger until they graduate from high school.
Using the “rule of 69”, the exact doubling time for the population in China and
Japan is calculated as: FP=PP.(1+r)T, where FP
is future population, PP=present population = population growth rate and T=
exact doubling time. Therefore, 
CHINA
It has a population of 1.3367
billion people, the growth rate is 0.5%, therefore time taken to double will be
= 0.69315 ÷ ln
(1+0.005)
=0.69315 ÷ 0.004988 = 138.98 years.
Meaning that it will take 138.98
years for the current China’s population to double.
JAPAN
It has a population of 126.475
million people, with a growth rate of -0.1%, therefore the time taken to double
will be; 
= 0.69315 ÷ ln (1-0.001)
=0.69315
÷ (-0.00100 = -692.8 years.
This shows that Japan’s
population will reduce by half within an estimate of 692.8 years. Japanese
population is not expected to double but reduce.
REFERENCES
Arnold, F.,
& Zhaoxiang, L. (1986). Sex
preference, fertility, and family planning in China. Population and Development
Review, 12(2), 221-246.
Caldwell, John C.; Bruce K
Caldwell, Pat Caldwell, Peter F McDonald, Thomas Schindlmayr (2006). Demographic
Transition Theory. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. pp. 41
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